LATE-ROUND QUARTERBACK - Trevor Lawrence (QB16)
Lawrence had an objectively poor season in 2023 (and missed one game)...and still finished as the QB13. Just one year prior, he finished as the QB8. Right now, he's going as the 16th quarterback off the board - that's called a value. Based on talent and the weapons around him (Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Travis Etienne, and Brian Thomas Jr., Lawrence likely bounces back and has a more productive season in 2024, making him a top-12 option at the QB position that you can get in the double-digit rounds.
Other Notables: Kirk Cousins (QB19), Matt Stafford (QB20), Geno Smith (QB24), Justin Fields (QB27).
LATE-ROUND RUNNING BACK - Chase Brown (RB36)
Over the past six seasons, Joe Mixon averaged 274 touches, 1,273 total yards, and 9.7 touchdowns. If you pro-rate his stats to a full 17-game season, his average numbers come out to 337 touches, 1,564 total yards, and 12 touchdowns. Mixon is no longer in Cincinnati, leaving a ton of production up for grabs in a great Cincy offense led by Joe Burrow. Some may look to Zack Moss to carry the load, who performed admirably in place of Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis last year, but Moss had never really impressed when given the chance in his previous four seasons. While Moss lacks explosiveness, Chase Brown's jumps off the page. Brown ranked 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt among 77 RBs with at least 40 carries and 12th in fantasy points per opportunity. With news coming out that Brown has been running with the first team unit consistently in camp, Brown could be 10-15 touch guy in an elite offense.
Other Notables: Jerome Ford (RB37), Rico Dowdle (RB43), JK Dobbins (RB44).
LATE-ROUND WIDE RECEIVER - Josh Palmer (WR55)
Palmer is being criminally underrated right now, going as the 55th WR off the board despite being the front-runner to lead a Justin Herbert-led offense in targets. I understand that this offense will likely be run-first and that the Chargers drafted Ladd McConkey early in this year's draft. However, Herbert has shown chemistry with Palmer, while McConkey has lost valuable time this offseason building that connection due to Herbert's injury. From Weeks 3-18 last year, Palmer played in 8 games. In those 8 games, he averaged 6.9 targets and 4.3 receptions for 70.5 yards and 2 total touchdowns. Over a full year, that equates to 117 targets, 72 receptions, 1,198 yards, and 4 TDs, which would've placed him as the WR24 last season. Now without Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everret out of town, Palmer could reach even higher heights.
Other Notables: Diontae Johnson (WR38), Christian Watson (WR40), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR41).
LATE-ROUND TIGHT END - Tyler Conklin (TE20)
The tight end position gets gross in a hurry. Once that Pat Freiermuth and Brock Bowers tier passes, it's a bit of a crapshoot with what's left. However, there could still be some serviceable picks late, like Tyler Conklin. The Jets have a bunch of question marks after Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall in the pecking order. Mike Williams figures to be the third option in this offense, but he's been extremely unreliable throughout his career and is already dealing with some injuries. That means Conklin could be the third option for Aaron Rodgers, who has made Jermichael Finley, Richard Rodgers, an old Jimmy Graham, and Robert Tonyan fantasy relevant. Conklin quietly finished with the 11th most receptions, 13th most targets, and 13th most yards among TEs last year. He was also somehow able to finish as the TE21 despite scoring 0 TDs. He's going as the TE20 right now and I'm willing to bet he improves on that TD mark with Rodgers back.
Other Notables: Taysom Hill (TE17), Jonnu Smith (TE21), Zach Ertz (TE26), Noah Fant (TE27).
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