A weekly (hopefully) article highlighting interesting (subjective) fantasy trends, topics and opinions.
Around this time of year, right before the start of the season, where most fantasy leagues are drafting you begin to see one type of article: "My Guys". This is where every fantasy expert puts out their boldest predictions and tell you the players they CANNOT leave a draft without. Every year I have these opinions as well, but when it comes to the actual draft there are a lot of instances where the price on draft day is just too high. So in leu of writing an article that may not even ring true to myself, I'm going to list my actual guys, the players I did end up drafting consistently and justifying why I couldn't stop drafting them. Without any further adieu, my I present to you: My Guys:
For context that I am in 9 leagues this year: 1 dynasty, 2 keeper, 2 superflex, 1 best ball and the rest PPR redraft.
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray - I try to draft value at all positions, especially QB. I will not reach on a QB and I will take one where I see value. Kyler, this year was the most common value pick for me. I only have him on 3 rosters, 33% of my leagues, so I wouldn't say that I'm bullish on Kyler. However, I am a little higher than FantasyPros ECR on him. FP ECR has him as QB7 and I had him at QB6. (Source: FantasyPros) One of the best blends of high volume passing and high end rushing upside, if he fell to me in the 6/7th rounds it was hard to say no.
Geno Smith - Speaking of value, one the biggest values in all of the fantasy right now is Geno Smith. In most drafts I've participated in he isn't even being drafted. If there's one thing we know about Ryan Grubb its that he wants to air it out. In his time as Washington's OC the Huskies finished 1st and 2nd in the nation in passing yards per game. (Source: Seahawks.com) Just two years ago Geno finished as QB5 and now has a new weapon in Jaxon Smith-Njigba poised for a breakout year. I'm buying in on Geno as a high upside second option at QB.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs - If I found myself drafting near the backend of the first round it was hard not to walk away with Jahmyr Gibbs. I'm pretty much at consensus on Gibbs but where he was going in my drafts just felt too good to pass up. He is being drafted usually as the first or second RB off the board after the big three of Bijan, CMC and Breece are off the board but much closer to the Barkley and Taylors of the world than to the lofty top 5 picks you will have to spend on one of the big three. I think you can make a case that Gibbs is closer to that elite tier than to the solid RB1 tier. Both Taylor and Barkley are being hamstrung by running QBs who may eat at their volume and TD production as well as having a few years/big injuries behind them. Gibbs is in a great offense, came on strong at the end of last season and is a candidate for a second year breakout. Gibbs is one of the few players who has number 1 overall player potential.
De'Von Achane - Speaking of number 1 overall potential: De'Von Achane. 800 yards on essentially 100 carries last year in only 11 games played. The projections on this guy should be through the roof, however, it seems like injuries are baked into his ADP. On some sites he's ranked outside of the top 20 RBs! Injuries are a real risk for every player, while I understand Achane isn't the biggest guy in the world, he's also not being asked to run the same style that Derrick Henry and Gus Edwards are. Miami wants to get him in space and create a lane. They also have an elite change of pace back that will spell Achane and hopefully reduce the wear and tear on his body. There is a genuine world where Miami has two top 15 RBs this year and Achane has the potential to be the breadwinner of the bunch.
Honorable Mentions - Raheem Mostert, Jerome Ford, Chuba Hubbard, Justice Hill, Bijan Robinson, Devin Singletary and Rico Dowdle.
Wide Receivers
Jaylen Waddle - By far my most shares of any receiver with Jaylen Waddle. It seems that people have forgotten that he has been on the same team as Tyreek Hill for 3 years now and has produced regularly with him on the field. Waddle has game-breaking speed and legit top-10 upside yet was being drafted, in most formats, in the 4th round. Waddle only played in 14 games last year and still almost eclipsed his 2022 mark for receptions and still broke 1,000 yards. I'll take the over on both of those numbers for this year. Sign me up some Waddle.
Brian Thomas Jr. - Whats not to love here? The ADP, the upside, the QB potential, the scheme fit, ect. All of it lines up perfectly for BTJ. I think most people still believe we haven't seen the best of Trevor Lawrence yet, breakout QBs are always a great sign for receivers. On top of this, he is a freak athlete with a prototypical build who profiles as an X receiver, which is exactly what Jacksonville was in need of. I understand the thought process of thinking he will be exactly what Calvin Ridley was last year, but the difference is you're getting him significantly cheaper, he wasn't out for an entire year AND he's still a rookie. The upside is undeniable here.
DJ Moore - This one is a no brainer. Why is DJ Moore, an established WR1 in the NFL, playing with the best QB of his career on an offense with what looks to be unlimited firepower going 2 (sometimes 3) rounds after Nico Collins, who is in essentially the same position? DJ Moore is an elite route runner and is elite after the catch, he can line up in the slot or outside and he the most established receiver in the Bears locker room. Allen is poised to fall off a cliff at any moment and Odunze is still a rookie. Moore is primed to see a huge target share and may actually have a QB that can sustain the value of those targets over the course of a full season. I love me some DJ Moore.
Honorable Mentions: Tyreek Hill, Josh Palmer, and Adonai Mitchell
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid - Only one name needed here, I believe I have 5-6 shares of Kincaid this year. I've never been this bullish on a player before. Full disclosure: I'm writing the end of this article after the week 1 slate due to work/travel time constraints. Let me just be the first to say: "IM NOT WORRIED". Josh Allen just showed how dynamic he can be when you take away his favorite target. You can't take away his main guy and shut down Buffalo's gameplan anymore. There will always be weeks like this in elite seasons, I fully expect there to be multiple weeks that will make up for week 1. Buy low on Kincaid.
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